North Korea's potential for making weapons of mass destruction poses a very serious problem for the United States, a Korean scholar for the Honolulu-based Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies told BYU-Hawaii students in the annual Honors Week Forum on Mar. 11.
"Many people believe North Korea poses a bigger threat for the U.S. than Iraq does," said Seongho Sheen [pictured at right], a University of Massachusetts professor who earned his Ph.D. at Tufts.
The former South Korean Army public relations officer suggested because the present administration wants to deal with Iraq first, they downplay coverage of North Korea "but they know it's very, very serious."
Dr. Sheen started his presentation by outlining some of the problems faced by North Korea, or more correctly the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"In '98, almost two million people reportedly starved to death, out of a 22-million population," he said, estimating that millions of others are suffering because of the country's "failed economic system."
"The North Korean people lack everything. In every respect, they're in a desperate situation," Dr. Sheen said. The suffering is "especially bad among small and young children, many of whom are undersized and malnourished," he pointed out.
"With its closed, centralized economy, it's plain that North Korea will continue to go down."
He continued to explain that the country is a "totally closed society in every sense. Every radio in North Korea has to be registered by the government, and there's only one station. People can only listen to what the government wants them to hear."
"The average North Korean believes South Koreans are worse off than they are today," he said. "They believe the government takes care of them, and they are better off than their South Korean counterparts."
Dr. Sheen attributes the problems to five decades of rule by the government, currently headed by Kim Jung Il, who succeeded his father in 1994.
"Under Kim's leadership, North Korea is basically a Communist country; but actually it's more like a one-person totalitarian regime or an absolute monarchy," he said. "He [Kim] has total control, not only in terms of economy and everyday living, but also in information flow."
Dr. Sheen showed a recently published night-time satellite photo of the Korean peninsula that shows North Korea has almost no electricity. He explained this is the nominal reason the country started up its nuclear reactors several weeks ago.
"They say they need electricity, yet experts have found there is no power grid coming out of their nuclear facilities. Even if there were power being produced, where would it go?" Dr. Sheen asked, concluding that North Korea is "producing materials for nuclear weapons."
"Their Yongbyon facility can basically produce that material from spent fuel rods," he said. "They already have 8,000 spent fuel rods...from which they can make six or eight nuclear bombs. At the same time they also have a missile program."
Dr. Sheen explained the North Korean Taepo Dong 2 ICBM "can reach Hawaii, Alaska, or possibly even the West Coast of America. This is very dangerous for the U.S., poses a threat to the region, and is a direct violation of the international non-proliferation regime of nuclear weapons."
He said he believes North Korea is pursuing this brinksmanship course "quite simply, as a deterrence. After the Korean War they had no allies. Also, they cannot match the South Koreans, who are backed by the superpower United States. But they can use their nuclear capabilities for bargaining purposes."
Dr. Sheen outlined three possible responses from the U.S.: negotiate, contain, or confront. In reference to negotiating, he said, "The Bush administration has said, we did that already, and North Korea did not keep their promise."
He added North Korea has already been contained for the past five decades, and that a pre-emptive confrontation would have "a huge downside: It could create another Korean war. South Korea is in range of North Korean artillery, let alone their nuclear weapons."
Dr. Sheen also explained that any internal North Korean revolution that removed the current administration could destabilize the country, "pose a serious threat to South Korea, and deliver a huge blow to its economy."
"A pre-emptive strike is an absolute no-no, because it will create an instant response from North Korea that would be an absolute nightmare, starting with South Korea," he said. "The U.S. cannot afford a full-scale war with North Korea, yet the U.S. does not want to appease them. We hope, maybe after the war with Iraq, that Washington and Pyongyang will engage in some kind of talks."
"The United States obviously wants to delay any kind of action until the war with Iraq is over," Dr. Sheen continued. "But obviously, North Korea keeps banging on the U.S. door, saying talk to me."
Asked why the U.S. can't let South Korea take the lead, Dr. Sheen replied, "North Korea doesn't want to talk to South Korea. They only want to talk to the United States."
"Many people say North Korea acts crazy and looks crazy; but they are very, very smart," Dr. Sheen said. "Their actions are very calculated. Before they recently fired their second missile test, they informed Japan."
The Asia-Pacific Center is a Honolulu-based institution established by President Clinton in 1994, to help the U.S. military build relations with their Asian and Pacific counterparts by focusing on broad multilateral approaches to regional security issues and concerns.
— Photo by Mike Foley